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2 years 9 months ago #481837 by WonPaund
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п»їSports Betting Odds.
Sports Betting Odds Explained.
Many people don’t know how to read or calculate sports betting odds, so below we have done our best on explaining how betting odds work. The most common type of sports betting odds used in North America are the American style odds which we explain below.
American Style Sports Betting Odds.
Most online sportsbooks will list their odds in what is called “American Odds”. There are a couple different versions of sports betting odds, but these American Odds are the most common odds used. Reading and understanding sports betting odds can bet a little confusing to beginners, so we have provided an example below using two NFL football teams:
American Odds.
The number shown in the bracket represents the odds. The American Odds have two components to them, the first being the positive or negative sign, and the second being the number that follows the sign.
The next step is figuring out exactly how much the bet pays out, which is where the numbers in the odds come into play.
A listed odd with a – sign in front of it, such as the -140 in our example above, shows us how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. So using the -140, this would show us that you would need to bet $140 in order to win $100 in profits. You can easily substitute the $100 bet for a $10 bet by moving the decimal place over one spot, showing us that you would need to wager $14 in order to win $10 in profits.
Examples:
Examples:
Below is an example of NFL betting odds taken from an online betting site.
The great thing about betting online is that the online sportsbooks will do the calculations for you before you place your bet. You can click on the outcome or team you would like to bet on, and then input the amount you wish to wager and it will show you your potential pay out before you confirm your bet.
Ready To Start Betting? MyBookie and BetNow are my two favorite sportsbooks and make betting very easy. You will also get a Free Money Bonus at each sportsbook if you follow either link above.
Decimal Style Sports Betting Odds.
Decimal style odds are used mostly in Europe, and are pretty easy to understand. To calculate the decimal style odds all you will need to do is simply multiply the amount you wish to wager by the decimal odds shown and you will get your payout. For example it may look something like this:
Decimal Odds.
Matchup Odds USA 2.40 Brazil 1.55.
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on the USA at 2.40 you would simply need to multiply your $10 wager by the 2.40 odds (10 x 2.40) to find out that the payout is $24. It is important to realize that with decimal style odds it includes the amount you wagered, so to find out profits you would need to subtract your wager ($24 – $10) to find out your potential payout is $14 in profits.
If you wanted to place a $10 wager on Brazil you would again just multiply $10 x 1.55 to find out that you would win $15.50 total or $5.50 in profits.
Decimal style betting odds are very simple to understand, but you won’t see them displayed in many North American sportsbooks. With that said, most online betting sites will allow you to chose the style of betting odds you want displayed, with American odds set as the default.


2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Coin toss betting odds and predictions.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to square off at Raymond James Stadium Sunday night in Super Bowl LV . Below, we analyze the 2021 Super Bowl coin toss prop bet odds and offer our picks and predictions for the Big Game.
2021 Super Bowl coin toss prop bets.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Coin toss outcome.
Heads -105 Tails -105.
In Super Bowl history, the results have been almost split. Tails has been the result 29 times, with heads coming up the other 25 times. Tails has been the result in six of the last seven years since Super Bowl XLVIII.
I like TAILS to continue that hot streak, because after all, tails never fails.
Also see:
2021 Super Bowl prop bets: Which team will win the coin toss?
Chiefs -105 Buccaneers -105.
As the road team, the Chiefs will call the toss Sunday. In their eight away games this season, the Chiefs were 4-4 calling the toss. When they won the flip, they chose to defer all four times.
As for the Buccaneers, they won the toss four times in their four home games when the other team called the flip. In three of those wins, they deferred, opting to receive in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons.
It's a toss-up (pun intended), but I'm leaning CHIEFS (-105) here to win the toss and defer.
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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: What will be the decision of the coin toss winner?
DEFER (-500) is the wise choice here. Both the Chiefs and Buccaneers prefer to get the ball in the second half. The Chiefs deferred in all four of their coin toss wins as the road team this season, and the Buccaneers deferred in three of their four choices at home.
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2021 Super Bowl prop bets: What will the call for the coin toss be?
Heads -110 Tails -110.
The Chiefs will be the ones calling the toss as the road team. It's anyone's guess what they will call at midfield, but I'll lean TAILS (-110) here.
Also see:
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Market Cap 71.69M Beta (5Y Monthly) 0.40 PE Ratio (TTM) N/A EPS (TTM) -0.1910 Earnings Date N/A Forward Dividend & Yield N/A (N/A) Ex-Dividend Date N/A 1y Target Est N/A.
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Sporting Clube de Portugal - Futebol, SAD operates sports clubs in Portugal. The company also engages in the sale of tickets for games; advertising and sponsorships activities; and provision of television rights. Sporting Clube de Portugal - Futebol, SAD was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Lisbon, Portugal.




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2 years 9 months ago #482013 by WonPaund
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п»їGet Sports Insights.
Absolutely! Check out this video to see behind the curtain here at Sports Insights.
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Our Best Bet picks, which are the plays handpicked by our team of sports information analysts, have historically won at a rate of 54%-55% ATS.
For those who don’t know Bet Labs is a platform where you can apply over 400 filters to our database of historical sports betting information to research profitable trends and create betting systems.


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2 years 9 months ago #482220 by WonPaund
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п»їHow to Calculate Odds.
The bet calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.
Choose the amount of money you want to bet.
Choose the odds you have been given or would like to test.
Payout.
Your total payout with the current odds and stake.
$190.91.
Profit.
Decimal.
Implied Probability.
Fractional / UK.
How to Calculate Parlay Bet Odds.
A parlay bet is a single wager that requires two or more outcomes to all win. The parlay calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.
Choose the amount of money you want to bet.
Type the odds you want to add and press enter or tab.
Payout.
Your total payout with the current odds and stake.


Betting Odds Calculator.
The betting odds calculator allows you to input your stake & odds in American, Decimal, or Fractional formats to quickly calculate the payout for your bets.
Top Offers.
American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet.
Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign , and represent the money you need to risk to win $100 .
So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. You need to risk $140 to win $100 on the Packers. If they win, you profit $100 and get your original $140 back.
The rest of the world uses Decimal Odds , in part because it’s easier to convert them to implied probabilities than American Odds. Decimal odds represent the amount a bettor wins for every $1 wagered . And the number represents the total return , not just the profit like American and fractional odds.
The Packers would be 1.714 in decimal odds as a -140 favorite in American odds. For every $1 risked, you’re profiting 71.4 cents, plus your $1 back.
Fractional Odds are used primarily in the UK and Ireland. Few bettors use fractional odds for betting sports (other than horse racing), because the conversions to understand return are difficult.
To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by the top number (numerator), then divide the result by the bottom (denominator). So a $10 bet at 5/2 odds is (10 * 5) / 2, which equals $25. A $10 bet at 2/5 odds is (10 * 2) / 5, which is $4.
Did you notice those percentages add up to more than 100%? That’s because of the vig, which is a sportsbook’s cut for facilitating your bet. To calculate implied probability, use the following formulas:
For negative numbers (favorites), drop the minus sign, then do:
For positive numbers (underdogs) :
The bet amount is how much you’re risking on a given bet. As a responsible bettor, it is important to understand proper bankroll management.
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Calculate how much money you stand to win per wager with our betting odds calculator. It definitely comes in handy when placing bets on Monday Night Football!
A bet calculator is an absolute necessity in the arsenal of any serious bettor. The sports betting calculator allows users to simplify some of the more complicated math and get quick and precise calculations of odds and potential winnings.
To learn more about how to use a betting calculator and the different odds formats available for sports betting read below.
How To Use A Betting Odds Calculator.
A betting odds calculator takes the odds and stake of a particular bet and figures out the payout automatically. Thus, in order to understand how to use a betting odds calculator, we must first understand the different types of betting odds.
There are three popular methods of displaying odds at sports betting sites: American, Decimal and Fractional. Each type of odds requires different calculating methods when using a sports betting odds calculator.
You can also have a look at our odds converter!
American Odds.
Profit = (Stake * Odds) / 100.
Taking the example above, if we added a stake of $50 we can calculate the potential winnings from the bet using an odds calculator:
Profit = (50 * 275)/100 Profit = 13750/100 Profit = $137.50.
When calculating American odds for minus odds wagers, you are calculating the odds for favorites, which returns less than even money in profits. So if we took the same example and gave the Boston Red Sox odds of -140, it would represent the fact you would have to wager $140 to make a profit of $100. To calculate the profit for an American minus odds you may use the formula:
Profit = (Stake / Odds) * 100.
So if the Red Sox were getting -140 odds and you were going to wager $50 on them the betting calculator calculation would go like this:
Profit = (50 / 140) * 100 Profit = (0.357) * 100 Profit = $35.7.
When using an American odds bet calculator, you will only be required to know your stake and odds, the calculator will do the rest.
Decimal Odds.
Decimal odds are very popular across the globe with most online sportsbooks using decimal odds as their default. With decimal odds, you get the sum of the amount you would get in return for a $1 bet.
At most online sportsbooks like BetRivers or bet365, you can switch to this format if you prefer.
For example, let’s take a basketball game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics. If the Lakers were getting 2.50 odds for the game, it would mean that for every $1 you bet on the team you would get $2.50. To break it down, you would receive your stake back as $1 and another $1.50 in profits.
Calculating the potential earnings for decimal odds is very simple. You simply multiply your stake by the odds and then subtract your stake.
Profit = (Stake * Odds) – Stake.
Let’s take a look at the above example with a stake of $50.
Profit = (50 * 2.50) – 50 Profit = (125) – 50 Profit = $75.
While the calculations for decimal odds may seem very easy when the profits for accumulator bets are being calculated it’s best to use a betting odds calculator to ensure your accuracy. An odds calculator will automatically work out the odds of all the wagers combined and give potential winnings for parlay bets in seconds.
Fractional Odds.
Fractional odds are popular in the European region, especially amongst horse racing bettors in the UK and sometimes for Daytona 500 betting. With fractional odds, you are given the profit in proportion to the stake. So for example, if we had a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins where the Cowboys were getting 3/2 odds, it would mean that for every $2 you bet, you would get $3 in profit.
The way a betting odds calculator calculates the profits for a fractional odds bet is by dividing your stake by the denominator and then multiply the stake by the numerator:
Profit = (Stake / denominator) * numerator.
Taking the example mentioned above, if we add a stake of $100 to the Cowboys who are getting 3/2 odds, then the bet calculator calculation would go like this:
Profit = (100 / 2) * 3 Profit = (50) * 3 Profit = $150.




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2 years 9 months ago #482516 by WonPaund
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п»їSlot Machines Free Arbitrage Sports Betting Poker Chips 2021 Full - Fixed Matches.
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The number one reason people should play free slots is that they allow you to gain free experience at absolutely no risk to you.
Whether you want to work on advanced betting strategies for your favorite slots or you want to try out a new game entirely, free slots and casinos give players a safe place to learn the fundamentals and develop more advanced understandings of your favorite games.
The other major advantage of free slots is convenience. Anywhere you have an internet connection or data you can quickly load free slot games and play from your desktop, tablet, or phone.
Most free slots games are designed to run on modern web browsers like Google Chrome, Firefox, Microsoft Edge, and more. Free slots and real slots are both some of the most popular online gambling games when it comes to player choice.
But which one is better? You have access to thousands of choices, each with unique animations, sounds, and graphics. Free slots require no account, no login, no password, no bankroll, nothing to get started and enjoy playing right away.
Real money slots are for players that want a more intense or electrifying experience. Real money slots also feature much more significant bonuses for deposits and play.
All of these features make real slot casinos captivating to players with their eyes on jackpot type prizes. Here at SlotsUp. For instance, one of the first things you do before playing in real money slots and casino games is to check their license.
Remember, no matter where you are in the US, free slots should not be illegal as there is no money involved. You should not need to download any sort of software to play free online slots, and you should be suspicious of any website that initiates a download for trying to play free slots.
The next big factor in our decision is the number of free games available without download and how well those games play across phones, tablets, and desktop computers.
Games should function flawlessly on phones, while the tablet and desktop experience should really show off the animations and graphics on top of functioning perfectly.
Players have access to hours of free low-pressure gaming entertainment in some of their favorite slots and casino game styles.
Free slots can function as free education for any number of slot machines or casino games and can help you hone your betting strategies and gambling skills to give yourself an edge if you make the switch to real money slots or casinos.
Whether you want to test out the difference between three scroll, five scroll, or even seven scroll slot machines, or you finally want to learn the game of baccarat without the stress of losing real money, free slots and casino games are the way to go.
Playing free casino slots is one of the easiest gaming experiences there is to have. They function much like old flash games do, requiring no investment of memory space or download time.
The game should load directly in your browser, and you simply click to spin. You can place bets as large or as small as you want, and if you deplete your bankroll, you can simply refresh your funds with a click of a button.
This is why you will find below some important terms that will help you to better understand the vocabulary of the slot machines:.
The player thus has new chances of winning the winning lines. It is a leave or double chance. Possibility to activate an option to stop the spin during a gain.
Some machines offer Bonus Rounds, meaning free spins where you will necessarily earn a minimum of additional credits.
Once you have a minimum number of bonus symbols aligned, mini-games of chance appear as labyrinths, angling They are very fun and will make you have a good time.
Be careful, not every machine offer this system of mini-games bonus, you have to check in the descriptions if it is the case!
It's your call! You will read this term many times during machine descriptions. It can have two meanings. Sense 2: Call "Free Spin" the free spins you get through scatter symbols during a real money game.
In this case, the machine will then launch several turns that you will make you be able to unlock bonuses and earn many credits without you betting any coin.
Be careful, not every machine offers this system of Free Spin, it is up to you to check in the descriptions if it is the case!
Progressive jackpots are a jackpot that increases step by step thanks to a very small percentage taken on each bet. In the short term you can lose a bit of money but it is also this that will bring you to win an amount that can change your life!
As with the previous two sections, make sure your machine has one if those options is it is what you are looking for.
As in any field, there are bestsellers. This is supposed to result in larger wins that cover any previous losses, as well as achieving a profit equal to the original stake.
If they did, their increasingly larger bets would eventually pay off and bring in a vast payday. But since even the wealthiest players have a budget, a losing streak combined with a continual doubling of bets can quickly deplete even the most ambitious bankroll.
This is meant to take advantage of hot streaks while minimizing the damage of those pesky cold streaks. This system is flawed for the same reason as the traditional martingale theory.
The free casino games are played only when you want to play and win, but there is no money involved. When you are interested in some specific type of games, you may get only those on the site if you filter the games and then start playing them.
The game category must be provided so that the site shows you games from that category only. There are filters so that you do not waste your time but start finding something that you will love.
Start playing these games and you will forget about the real world. You will live in the make-believe world of games till you decide to stop and take some rest.
There are the best free games for any online gambling lover, and you will also find the slot games that are played for real money.


Arbitrage Sports Betting.
When it comes to sports betting, you gotta have a system. In fact, you probably already do. Everyone does and they are all foolproof strategies which can’t fail. Okay, maybe that last part isn’t true but you probably get the point. Having guidelines to your sports wagers is the way to go and every experienced sports gambler has them. However, what if there was a strategy which always won. A strategy which, when employed correctly, guaranteed a positive return. Well, there actually is one and it’s called arbitrage sports betting.
What is an Arbitrage?
For those unfamiliar with the term, an “arbitrage” is the buying and selling of a commodity in varying markets to leverage differing prices for the same commodity. Don’t worry, in sports betting, it’s much simpler. Arbitrage sports betting is the strategy where one wagers on the two opposite outcomes of one game and is guaranteed to make money on the outcome. It may still sound difficult. However, once you know what to look for, it will be as clear as day.
The Strategy.
So, you know you want to make two opposite wagers on one game so, more often than not, this is found in head-to-head sports. How do you do this? First of all, you need access to two different sportsbooks. Second, you need to watch the way the lines are moving on both sites. In order to arbitrage a wager, you’ll have to be getting the same odds at both sportsbooks. Thirdly, when you see odds at EVEN and better, you make one wager at one sportsbook, the opposite at the other.
Here’s an example on arbitrage sports betting:
Long Game.
Obviously, arbitrage betting is a long game. In order to make good money using this method, it will take time. Also, there are only so many opportunities a week to place an arbitrage wager, so taking advantage when you see one is a must. The example we gave is just one, but, now that you know what you are looking for, they’ll be easier to spot.
Switch It Up.
Arbitrage sports betting works and sportsbooks know this. They are always on the lookout for players who use it. It is much like counting cards in blackjack. Not illegal per se, but it will get you ejected from the casino if caught. A sportsbook, off-shore or licensed, reserves the right to boot you if you are suspected of arbitraging wagers. Therefore, it is wise to keep several sportsbooks handy (This will also make it easier to find more opportunities) and be sure to change up your wagering every time.




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2 years 9 months ago #482621 by WonPaund
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п»їTop 5 Sports Betting System Reviews That Work.
One of the greatest quotes in world history is “Never change the winning formula“. As in life, the same statement can apply to the world of betting. There are multiple ways to win some serious money betting on various sports and there are also some strategies or betting systems that might help you do that. Here we will review the best sports betting systems out there which are the most trusted & accurate ones.
ZCode System Membership: VIP Club, Winning Picks & Predictions.
zcode system review.
The membership of VIP Club, Winning Picks & Predictions is costing $198 per month as long as you wish to be a member of the ZCode system. Now you can get a limited-time trial offer for $7 and thereafter a monthly payment of $49 by clicking the link below . Z Code system comes with a 60 days money-back guarantee. In any case, you are not 100% happy with the system you shall be refunded the subscription amount in full.
Sports Cash System – Sports Wagering System.
Sports cash system review that works.
Be sure if this system is right for you or not? This betting system that works for EVERYONE, no matter if you are a complete newbie or experienced sports bettor. Watch the free video preview here, it tells you exactly about Sports Cash System and why this system works so well:
As a new member, you can try the famous system for only $4.95 in your first week and then $149 per month . They teach you everything step-by-step and give you FULL member access to the system so you can start using the system using their expert handicappers picks and unique wagering system.
The Sports Picks Buffet System.
The “Sports Picks Buffet” is a sports handicapper network, where you will access to sports picks from hundreds of the best handicappers around the globe. Normally an expert handicapper charges up to thousands of dollars for the sports picks. But in this system, you will get hundreds of tips for a particular game through one single subscription. Now you need not have to rely on a single handicapper before placing a bet for a particular game. You will go through the picks from different handicappers and place the bet in favor of the team for whom most of the handicappers provide their positive signals. In this way, it will be easier for you to determine the best picks of the day & expand your chance of winning.
Now they are offering a five days trial for $7 & the $37 weekly thereafter . This is one of the best sports betting systems & you must take a test drive through their trial offer!
Whale Picks System: The Champs Betting Systems.
The promoter of The Whale Pick system is the famous gambler named as the “Whale” or “The Sports Betting Champ” who had ransacked the Sportsbooks by winning huge bets. By using his sports picks members have generated a million dollars of profit. By investing as per Whale Pick system’s number and pattern-recognition technique and following the system religiously one must generate huge profit.
Whale Picks system offers two bonus i.e. The Whale’s “Acceleration” Bankroll Management System and “The Whale’s Overtime Betting System” along with their subscription which very essential for sports bettor to succeed in betting. The Whale Picks cost higher i.e. $300 per month than the other two systems. But according to the sports picks provider the system has the potential to turn a thousand dollars into ten million dollars.
Exterminator Sports Betting System.
This is one of the best handicapping system developed by “The Champ” which have taken the industry into a storm. The famous handicapper mixed his passion for sports with mathematics to developing this amazing betting system. The system mainly provides sports betting picks for NBA, MLB, NFL games. The betting system costs $200 which will provide lifetime access to the system plus lifetime picks.
What is the Sports investing system?
Sports betting investment systems provide predictions and picks prior to the game outcomes being declared and enabling the bettors to place the bet. The betting system software release the sports picks by taking into consideration the past performance of the teams, individual players, etc.
Why is important to have a betting system?
What is very important to realize at the very beginning, the formula itself is never a guarantee of any positive final outcome? The formula can also sometimes fail, but after some period of time, it can still give you more positive than negative outcomes. By going through the advice and picks of the picks provider and following proper bankroll management the sports bettor will ultimately succeed in his betting business.
If there was a universal winning formula at our disposal, the bookies would not be working and would most likely change something about their approach.
How to choose the right betting system?
The truth is, not all sports prediction software suit the same number of people so a lot of this is your decision. Kelly criterion is very successful but requires big calculations and research to properly invest, while Martingale can get you broke very soon.
Go through our top sports betting system review & visit their individual websites to choose the best betting system out there. While all the betting systems work with different techniques & strategies, it is always advised to stick to a single betting system at a time. No sports handicapper in the world can guarantee 100 percent success in their predictions.
At first, you need to have thorough bankroll management which all the top betting systems will guide you through their training. It would be advised to fix your betting budget first and the amount per bet. Normally 1% of the betting budget is used per a single bet. Sports predictions are base on probability and need consistent wagering as per the advice of the winning betting system to succeed.
If you take sports betting as gambling you may likely fail in this business. Like any other business, you should learn the nitty-gritty of the game & prepare to take it as one investment option like share trading or Forex trading, etc.


Get Access To The Plays Of The Sharpest Betting Syndicate In The World.
Through connections made in the early days of the offshore betting industry we have direct access to this sharp action.
This site isn’t for most people. If you thrive on discovering the latest “game of the year”, prefer trusting your gut over sticking to a strategy, or believe in chasing returns by making it all back on one play, there are plenty of other sites you can turn to.
We pride ourselves on working with clients who have clear goals, realistic expectations, and a cool head. We work hard to protect our clients from making emotional decisions that can negatively impact their long-term success.
This is a marathon, not a sprint.
That might seem like a strange approach in an industry littered with sites that give out “Games of the Year” 20 times a season and promise completely unrealistic profit numbers. But no matter how good you are at self-promotion, eventually you have to produce. And if the first thing you do with a new client is to promise something you can’t deliver on, eventually you’ll be exposed as the fraud you are.
We’re interested in building long-term relationships with our clients. Would you believe a stock broker who told you he was going to beat the return of the S&P 500 every year by 10 points and that you’d never have a losing month? Of course not. So why believe a service that makes similar claims?
Billy Walters is widely regarded as the most successful sports bettor of the past 30 years. Well, this comes straight from the mouth of one of Walters’ former employees, “The average guy on the street might be disillusioned if he knew the actual winning percentage.”
Does it shock you to know that Walters has gone on record saying he had hoped to hit 55 percent of his bets over the course of an NFL season?
So if you hear someone or some service promising numbers much higher than that, then you know they’re making promises they can’t keep.
Our service is targeted towards sophisticated bettors who realize that losing is just as much a part of this game as winning is. And if you can’t deal with that reality then we’re probably not a good fit for each other. Please make sure you have the necessary bankroll, money management skills, and discipline to successfully utilize the service . Past results are no guarantee of future results.
“I’m Glad I Made The Purchase”
Your selections are great, really. I’m glad I made the purchase, doing really well since. Thank you again. – Derwin P.
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This has to be the best service I have come across in many years, so looking forward to following you throughout the year. – John A.


An Intro to Quantitative Modeling for Sports Bettors (in Excel)
Lloyd Danzig.
Jan 21, 2020 В· 20 min read.
The explosive rise and spread of legalized sports betting in the United States has prompted many to develop (or renew) an interest in a more quantitative, data-driven methodology for predicting the outcomes of sporting events.
Intro to Monte Carlo Simulations.
Historically, any sportsbook operators generating their own o dds (as opposed to just copying bet365 or Pinnacle markets) or posting live projected win probabilities (e.g. ESPN Gamecast) has done so using some form of stochastic simulation, most commonly a Monte Carlo simulation . This is a method for iteratively evaluating a deterministic model using sets of nondeterministic (i.e. random) numbers as inputs.
To make sure we all understand what this means in this particular context, suppose I asked what the probability was of rolling a 1 on a single throw of a six-sided die. You likely know that immediately to be 1/6 or approximately 16.7%. However, for the less quantitatively-oriented, we could:
Roll a six-sided die, perhaps 100,000 times Tally up all the results Convert those to frequencies And then say that, given our sufficient sample size, we are reasonably certain that the frequency with which each outcome occurred during our trial is indicative or predictive of the frequency with which it will occur in the future.
Of course, no one is going to sit around a roll a die 100,000 times, nor could they do so in an independent and identically distributed (iid) fashion. Fortunately, all of your favorite spreadsheet programs and programming languages allow for this to be done many many times, very very quickly. You can see the syntax for one iteration in Excel and Python underneath the graphic above, just for the sake of illustration.
An Example: Yankees vs. Red Sox (June 29, 2019)
How does this apply to sports? Believe it or not, most odds, win probabilities, and score projections are generated by simulating matchups between teams or players in this exact fashion. We can illustrate this using as an example the matchup between the New Yankees and Boston Red Sox that took place at London Stadium in the United Kingdom on June 29th, 2019. If you want to follow along or toy around yourself, you can download the macro-enabled Excel workbook here .
Congratulations, we have now “simulated” a matchup between the Yankees and Red Sox in which the Yankees won by a score of 10.147 to 7.945.
However, just as with our dice example, we want to run this simulation not once, but, perhaps 10,000 times:
Finally, we can calculate the frequency with which each time won in our simulated matchups and convert or compare those to odds for betting purposes.
If you’re noticing that the two probabilities add up to 100.1%, that is only because of rounding for the sake of this graphic.
Looking Under the Hood.
This tactic of first creating a mathematical representation of an event, and then iterating through it over and over is a standard part of any data scientist’s toolkit and is used to make predictions that you might interact with regularly. Weather forecasts and economic projections are two very common examples, but for some it is not entirely intuitive why the method is effective in the first place. If this does not describe you, feel free to scroll down to the section titled Home Field Advantage .
We recall from statistics that normally distributed data sets follow a bell curve, under which a specific proportion of values can be found within a given distance from the mean.
Using only the mean and standard deviation of any normal distribution, we can construct a chart like the above. In the context of the model we’ve built thus far, this chart can be read as the likelihood with which the Yankees (or a team statistically identical to the Yankees) would score any number of runs against the Red Sox (or a team statistically identical to the Red Sox). Since normal distributions are symmetric about the mean, we would say there is a:
You’ll notice that in the case of the Yankees at this point in 2019, moving two standard deviations to the left of the mean yields a prediction of a negative score (-0.860). We will come back to this momentarily.
When we were building our simulation, we used the inverse of the cumulative normal distribution function along with 3 parameters. The cumulative normal distribution function itself shows, for a given distribution and value of x , the probability of a randomly selected value being less than x . In other words, what percentage of the data falls to the left of x . One final way to internalize this that is relevant here is to imagine choosing a value x along the x- axis and then asking what the probability is that a randomly selected point under the curve will be to the left of that x value.
The inverse of this function does…the inverse. It allows us to input a distribution (parameterized by a mean and standard deviation) and a percentage or probability, and then produces as output the x value for which the supplied percentage of data falls to the left.
The percentage or probability that we are supplying, in this case in Excel, comes from a (pseudo) random number generator that outputs a value greater than or equal to 0 and less 1, notated mathematically as [0,1). When the simulation was run to construct these graphics, that random value produced by Excel for the Yankees was.
One interpretation of this is that, for a bell curve representing a distribution with a mean of 5.142 and standard deviation of 3.001, 95.234% of the values fall to the left of 10.147. Another way of saying this is that the Yankees (or a team statistically identical to the Yankees) will score 10.147 or fewer runs against the Red Sox (or a team statistically identical to the Red Sox) in 95.234% of matchups.
As long as the assumption of a normal distribution holds, iteratively using random values between 0 and 1 to generate simulated scores for each team will give us a good approximation of how the game we parameterized is likely to play out (hopefully). For other sports and events, a normal distribution may not be ideal. For very low-scoring sports like soccer, it may make more sense to use a Poisson distribution or a negative binomial distribution to model the game, rather than a normal distribution.
In this particular case, as was briefly referenced earlier, it is possible to obtain a negative number of runs scored. For the purposes of the model we are building, we will employ logic that converts any negative scores to a score of 0.000. This is a place where we see the art of modeling truly fusing with the science. Perhaps a simulated score of Yankees: -4, Red Sox: -3 is just as informative as a simulated score of Yankees: 5, Red Sox: 6 . Or, perhaps one wants to completely remove the entire simulated matchup in the case that either team produces a result that would be impossible in the real world. Stepping back for just a moment, we see this is not the only aspect of our model that leaves room for creativity and also for error. We did not take into account injuries, momentum, weather, stadium dimensions, starting pitchers, and a host of other important data points that may impact our predictions.
Often, one of the best ways to learn to build models is to start with the minimum viable product and then incrementally add to and scale it. In this case, we will first look at incorporating home field advantage as a feature of our model.
Home Field Advantage.
During the 2018 MLB regular season the home team won 1,277 games (52.6%), while the away team won 1,149 games (47.4%). Thus, someone building a model amidst the 2019 season may ascribe a 2.6% incremental win probability to a team playing at home, all else being held equal.
This is not a home game for the Red Sox, as it was played in London at a neutral site, but suppose it was. One option would have been to only use Runs Scored and Runs Against data from Red Sox home games and Yankees away games in the first place, so that no further modifications need to be made. In some cases, this would be a viable approach, though we may hesitate to think this is one of them, especially because of the limiting factor it has on an already-small sample size.
Suppose our research revealed that, all else equal, home field advantage can be expected to add 0.32 expected runs to a team’s output, after adjusting for the quality of the opponent’s defense. It is particularly easy to incorporate this into our model by simply adding 0.32 to the Adj. Runs Scored for the team with home field advantage.
This occurs before the value is passed as a parameter to the inverse of the cumulative normal distribution function, ( NORM.INV , in Excel parlance), so no further adjustments are needed. The same can be said for any factor that adds or subtracts a specified absolute contribution to or from the expected output. For example, if a particular team scores 0.73 fewer runs in games immediately following a cross-country flight, and the game we are trying to model fits that criteria, it would be very easy to incorporate into the simulation.
In our case, neither team had home field advantage, so we will not use such a factor, but it is still an option that can be toggled into our Excel model.
An Ensemble Approach to Modeling.
Not only can we adjust our model for factors like home field advantage, but we can also layer on other methodologies in order to take more of an ensemble approach to modeling, whereby multiple different models and/or datasets are used to predict the same outcome.
For example, Bill James and SABR have published a formula for calculating probabilities of victory in head-to-head MLB matchups, based solely on winning percentages. The derivation is clever and worth reading, and yields the following:


An Analytics Platform That Has Mastered Sports Predictions.
This story appears in the June 2013 issue of . Subscribe В»
The age-old rivalry between jocks and geeks is finally dead--and Nik Bonaddio is the killer. Bonaddio is founder and CEO of numberFire, an analytics platform that takes sports data to new brainy levels. Combining mathematically derived metrics with advanced algorithms that factor in situational variables, numberFire turns the "unstructured and misleading data" around sports into highly accurate stats and predictions for NFL, MLB and NBA players and teams.
What this means: Your betting odds just got better, and your fantasy-sports team just dominated. In fact, the New York City-based company's official 2012 March Madness bracket correctly picked the winner (Kentucky) and finished in the top 1 percent of brackets nationwide. NumberFire claims that its data gives users a 31 percent higher chance of winning their fantasy leagues and beats the projections provided by leagues 93 percent of the time. The company has about 40,000 users.
"Fantasy sports is a really big market that's been underserved for a long time," Bonaddio says. "We're scratching the itch a lot of people have."
A two-time All-American in track and field, Bonaddio got his head in the sports-data game after joining a fraternity at Carnegie Mellon, where he studied information systems and communication design. "I realized the advice you get around fantasy football and sports in general is very qualitative. It's all, 'I think this team is going to do well,' and this never made sense to me, because sports is all about numbers--the box score, the touchdown, the yards--but no one was doing any data modeling or data analysis," he says. "I analogized it at the time to finance: When you make a trade, all the big banks are using these complex models and quantitative trading algorithms, and I didn't understand what was so different about sports."
Bonaddio seems to have a knack for winning. After walking away with $100,000 from Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? in 2009, he quit his job and parlayed the cash into building data models. He launched numberFire in 2010, focusing on football insights; the site quickly secured fans by outpredicting the experts at ESPN and Yahoo 70 percent of the time by the end of the season. Bonaddio drafted Keith Goldner, an analyst for ESPN and two NFL franchises, to refine the predictive models, and last year expanded numberFire to include baseball and basketball. The startup, which continues to consistently beat the projections of CBS, NFL and Yahoo, has scored $775,000 in funding from investors including RRE Ventures and TechStars' David Tisch. Revenue--which grew from $10,000 in 2011 to $250,000 last year--is derived mainly from premium subscriptions (basic analytics are free) and partnerships with major media companies, which leverage numberFire's data on their own sites.
Turns out there really is a formula for success.




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2 years 9 months ago #482649 by WonPaund
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п»їFuboTV Jumps on Plan to Buy Sports-Betting Firm Vigtory.
Jan 12, 2021 11:25 AM EST.
Shares of fuboTV ( FUBO ) - Get Report jumped Tuesday after the sports-first live-television-streaming platform said it agreed to acquired sports-betting company Vigtory with plans to launch a sportsbook this year.
Terms weren't disclosed. FuboTV expects to close the deal in the first quarter, subject to conditions it didn't specify.
At last check fuboTV shares were 15% higher at $31.21.
"We believe online sports wagering is a highly complementary business to our sports-first live-TV-streaming platform," David Gandler, fuboTV's co-founder and CEO, said in a statement.
"We don’t see wagering as simply an add-on product to fuboTV. Instead, we believe there is a real flywheel opportunity with streaming video content and interactivity."
FuboTV says it plans to leverage Vigtory's sportsbook platform and digital gaming assets to develop a "frictionless betting experience for fubo's customers."
Vigtory, founded in 2019 by Sam Rattner and backed by the Conshohocken, Pa., venture-capital firm SeventySix Capital, has been in discussions for market access agreements in the eastern U.S. Vigtory currently has a deal for a sportsbook in Iowa through Casino Queen.
Under the agreement, both Rattner and co-CEO Scott Butera will join fuboTV's gaming division as president and chief operating officer, respectively.
FuboTV plans to launch a free-to-play gaming experience this summer through its December 2020 acquisition of Balto Sports and its content automation software.
Free-to-play gaming will be available to all customers, not just fuboTV subscribers. And the service will enable consumers to see current betting lines, place wagers and cash in their winnings, among other features.
The free-to-play gaming "will build further scale to fuboTV, essentially acting as another lead generator for driving subscribers to our streaming video platform and, ultimately, our sportsbook," fuboTV's Gandler said.


Online Gaming & Sports Betting.
At the intersection of interactive gaming and government regulation, one law firm stands out.
Ifrah Law has represented Online Gaming clients since the inception of the industry, and now represents many of the largest iGaming companies and industry associations around the world. We have been at the center of most of the important prosecutions and lawsuits in the Online Gaming industry, plus we were instrumental in the creation of the legislative and regulatory frameworks in three states which currently permit online gaming: Delaware, New Jersey and Nevada.
Nationally ranked by Chambers USA in Gaming & Licensing Law, Jeff Ifrah and his firm bring decades of experience in betting and wagering law to advise startups in the eSports space, including both real money and skill-based p2p competition sites, on compliance with both state and federal law. Our clients in the sports betting arena include FanDuel, FoxBet, Bet365, Playtech, Unikrn, WorldPay/FIS Global, Genius, and SportRadar. Jeff and his team have also gained a strong reputation in other innovative internet-based industries such as payment processing and money transmission.
The firm is a founding member of iDEA (iDevelopment and Economic Association), an association which seeks to grow jobs and expand online interactive entertainment business in the United States through advocacy and education. Its members include, Golden Nugget, 888, PaddyPowerBetfair, GVC, and Scientific Games, among others. On behalf of iDEA, Ifrah Law submitted an amicus brief to the Supreme Court in the seminal sports betting case Murphy v. NCAA , which was decided in favor of iDEA’s argument urging the rights of states to direct their own economies.
Two characteristics uniquely qualify Ifrah Law to represent iGaming companies:
Our substantial experience in both criminal defense and civil litigation. This is invaluable because even civil cases can expose iGaming companies to criminal prosecution. We are litigators who know the risks and how to avoid them. Our knowledge of the Online Gaming industry and the people who work in it. We are a firm of lawyers who share a passion for understanding our clients and their businesses. Through our representation of iGaming businesses since the industry’s beginnings, we have acquired an in-depth understanding which is key to our ability to craft solutions that meet our clients’ goals.
Jeff Ifrah and his team advise online casino operators, poker and fantasy sports sites, and payment processors on class action lawsuits, mergers and acquisitions, vendor and supplier issues, government investigations and criminal matters. We also serve as Special Internet Counsel for the Delaware State Lottery. The firm is known for representing clients in cases involving progressive areas of the gaming industry, such as sports betting, social gaming, skins betting, iGaming, online sweepstakes and lotteries, peer-to-peer betting and mobile gaming.


Betting and Gaming.
LEADERS.
Overview.
A Unique Offering.
The Gibson Dunn global betting and gaming practice is one of the most preeminent betting and gaming legal practices worldwide, representing the most prestigious and influential clients in the industry across Europe, Asia and the Americas.
We believe that the Gibson Dunn global betting and gaming practice provides our clients with a unique offering – no other global law firm can offer an award-winning regulatory and compliance capability alongside a market-leading transactional practice in the betting and gaming sector in the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region.
No other global law firm has achieved so much in the betting and gaming sector, including acting as lead attorneys for the State of New Jersey in action before the US Supreme Court that resulted in the repeal of the federal limits on sports betting in the U.S.
Leveraging our thorough understanding of the sector, we handle our clients’ most important and complex corporate, mergers and acquisitions, and real estate transactions, litigation and disputes work, regulatory and compliance matters and other legal challenges. Gibson Dunn lawyers are able to provide tier-one representation in all major betting and gaming markets, including the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and the Asia Pacific Region.
Gambling Compliance named Gibson Dunn “Best Regulatory Lawyer or Law Firm of the Year” at its 2018 Gambling Compliance Global Regulatory Awards, which recognize “individuals and teams who have excelled in the field of regulatory compliance and responsible gambling initiatives.”
Betting & Gaming Operators – Gibson Dunn has represented the leading industry operators in online and retail betting and gaming throughout the world, advising on the most significant mergers and acquisitions in the sector and also representing clients in relation to commercial joint ventures, real estate acquisitions and leasehold arrangements, technology outsourcing arrangements, and labor and employment matters. Gibson Dunn attorneys’ experience in the sector is unparalleled, providing clients with access to the latest in industry knowledge and strategic insight.
U.S. Sports Betting – Gibson Dunn served as the lead attorneys for the State of New Jersey in 2018 before the Supreme Court, securing the repeal of the federal limits on sports betting in the U.S. Gibson Dunn attorneys have also represented clients on the most significant transactions undertaken since the repeal of PASPA, including mergers and acquisitions, commercial partnerships and joint ventures, and technology sourcing arrangements.
Regulatory & Compliance – Gibson Dunn’s betting and gaming regulatory practitioners have advised clients on multi-jurisdictional betting and gaming regulatory filings and risk assessments in connection with significant merger and acquisition transactions, and in connection with organic operational expansions, and have in-depth working knowledge of the betting and gaming regulatory regimes of over seventy countries around the world. Gibson Dunn lawyers also have advised betting and gaming clients on a range of compliance issues relating to betting and gaming operations, including issues arising under the FCPA, the UK Bribery Act and other anti-corruption laws, and under antitrust/competition, consumer protection, VAT and gaming tax, anti-money-laundering and data privacy laws. The firm acts as special counsel to compliance committees, providing proactive advice and support. We have also represented betting and gaming clients in connection with governmental and regulatory inquiries, investigations and litigation in multiple jurisdictions.
Casinos & Resorts – Gibson Dunn has represented investors, lenders and operators in acquiring, financing, selling and developing some of the largest casinos, hotels and resort communities throughout the world, including the United States and Macau. Our litigation and labor attorneys have also represented numerous casino and resort clients in the sector in high-profile cases, including a significant success involving Indian casino gaming in New York.
Dispute Resolution – Gibson Dunn’s leading dispute resolution practice has represented clients in the betting and gaming sector on some of the most complex and industry-changing litigation and disputes in the sector, including representing industry bodies and associations in challenging regula

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